U.S. M&A Outlook 2026: Certainty and Service Industries Will Unlock Mid‑Market M&A Recovery

In this short video, Kenneth Wasik, Head of Investment Banking at Capstone Partners - IMAP USA speaks with Claire Smedley from IMAP HQ about the U.S. M&A outlook for 2026, with a particular focus on mid‑market mergers and acquisitions, what is needed to kick-start activity, and which industries are best positioned in an uncertain environment.

Why Certainty Matters for the U.S. M&A Market

Today’s market uncertainty is driven by three main factors:

1. Tariffs: Before tariffs were introduced, M&A activity was growing at about 6.6%. Post tariffs, activity fell by around 12%, highlighting the direct impact on the US M&A market and deal flow
2. Fed rate cuts: Markets have long been anticipating them, and historically there is a lag between a Fed rate cut and its effect on M&A deal activity. Notably, when policy rates fall below 2%, CEO confidence has tended to jump significantly - a pattern that has coincided with some of the strongest U.S. deal-making environments, including the 2021 boom
3. CEO and consumer confidence: Recent numbers show some improvement with an uptick in numbers, which is critical for unlocking new deal processes, sale mandates, and buy‑side M&A strategies

Service Industries M&A: Where Buyer Appetite Is Strongest

In the current U.S. M&A market, buyer appetite is strongest across service-based industries. In periods of uncertainty, investing in service-based industries is a smart move - companies don’t stop using essential services..

This applies across the board, from Healthcare and Industrial services to Consumer.

U.S. M&A Outlook for 2026: A Slow Door Opening

A year ago, many expected that once conditions improved, the “floodgates” would open andU.S. M&A activity would spike.

The outlook is now more measured. Instead, investors are still waiting on the sidelines, gradually gaining confidence before stepping back. The result is more of a “slow door opening” effect which is  likely to continue through 2026.

Watch the full interview HERE.